Sat 3 May 2008
It’s new blood versus old as Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic battle Chauncey Billups and the Detroit Pistons in Game One of the Eastern Conference Semifinals tonight in Auburn Hills.
Series Overview: There’s a lot to like about this match-up. You got the Magic’s youth against the Pistons’ experience. The Magic rely on the power game of Howard along with deadly perimeter shooting from Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. In their five-game first round win over the Raptors, Howard dominated the paint averaging 22.6 points, 18.2 boards and an intimidating 3.8 blocks. He’ll need to do more of the same and Turkoglu will have to shoot better from the outside (2-for-18 from 3 vs Tor).
They’ll also need Jameer Nelson to score and distribute the ball. That will be a tough chore against one of the game’s best point guards in Billups, who is a great all around player.
Keith Bogans and Keyon Dooling must supply the same spark they did in coming off Stan Van Gundy’s bench against the Raptors. Ex-Piston Carlos Arroyo could be vital giving Nelson a breather.
The Pistons rely on more of a balanced attack which features Billups and veteran big man Rasheed Wallace in the pick n’ roll. It’s extremely tough to defend because the versatile Wallace not only sets good picks but can hurt you from beyond the arc. In the six-game elimination of the 76ers, he averaged 14.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG and shot a deadly 44.8 percent (13-for-29) from downtown. In this series, he’ll be asked to play great D against Howard.
The Pistons don’t normally double which means they’ll ask Rasheed to limit the damage. What that could mean is Howard will get his points but the Magic perimeter attack could be neutralized. If that plays out, I can’t see Orlando winning this series.
You can give the nod to Howard against Wallace but Billups has a decided edge on Nelson, who needs to play out of his mind. The problem is that the other three starters all can chip in. That includes one of the brightest shooting guards in the game in Richard Hamilton along with the versatile Tayshaun Prince, whose length causes problems on both ends of the floor.
Antonio McDyess won’t score a ton but has good range and can step out from 17-18 feet and drain it. His ability to make shots away from the basket along with Wallace’s outside stroke could force Howard to play out meaning he won’t be as much of a defensive presence. That can’t happen or the Magic are in trouble.
On top of matters, Flip Saunders can bring in power forward Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson and grizzled vet Theo Ratliff to bang around Howard. The Raptors didn’t have the personnel to do that. Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo and Jarvis Hayes all give Saunders minutes. Figure vet Lindsey Hunter also to come off the bench. He can shoot the rock if you leave him open.
Analysis: The Magic are basically a three player attack with Nelson as the important fourth option. The problem is if the Pistons play Howard man-to-man, his supporting cast isn’t going to be much of a factor. It’s awfully hard to see them winning against a deeper and more experienced team whose been through this grind before.
Series Prediction: Pistons in 5
May 3rd, 2008 at 8:40 pm
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