Sat 31 Mar 2007
Yes, folks! It’s actually that time of year. The longwinded overdone Spring Training is finally over. Well, almost as some other key players injure their index fingers in some meaningless weekend exhibitions and are DLed two months.
I can just hear the loud screams and cursing in every household right now. And if a key player does go down before the first pitch is thrown Sunday night on ESPN by Cards’ ace Chris Carpenter against the Mets’ Jose Reyes, it will give even more reason for shortening Spring Training by at least a couple of weeks. What’s the point of playing so many damn games anyway?!?!?!?!?!
Well, regardless, the season is less than 48 hours away. Or as the obnoxious new Amazin’s campaign would point out to Mets fans, “Your season has come.” Could they get any lamer? Being a Yankee fan, I’ll readily admit our fanbase has been spoiled by the success they’ve had the past decade. But at least our team doesn’t make idiotic slogans which insult the intelligence of most baseball fans. With apologies to Mets team mascot Mike Lupica! If you’re a fan of 29 other clubs, wouldn’t you just love that slogan to blow up in their face? I’d love to see the look on their mug if that team which is superior to any other Senior Circuit club somehow missed the postseason.
That said, it’s time to give our synopsis on who we believe has what it takes to make the postseason and take it all. So let’s get to our magic crystal ball!
AL East- With Toronto no longer a pushover and Baltimore a little under the radar, it won’t be easy pickings for the Yankees and Red Sox.
1.Yankees- Even with questions in the bottom of their rotation and bullpen because you know Joe Torre will overwork Scott Proctor and Ron Villone yet again, there’s just too much firepower here. Andy Pettite is a great addition. What will Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano give them with Chien-Ming Wang out early?
Prediction: Pencil them in for 95-96 wins and another AL East.
2.Red Sox- Just cause they have to be here and much like their bitter rivals, there’s way too much offense to mess this up. J.D. Drew might be overrated but he’ll supply some more protection for Manny and Big Papi. He’ll also play better D than the banged up Trot Nixon or gloveless Wily Mo Pena. From what we’ve seen of $103 million investment Daisuke Matsuzaka thus far, he looks like the real deal, meaning that Boston’s front three with Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett should be stacked. Jonathan Papelbon taking one for the team to move back to closer can only be seen as a plus because Joel Pineiro‘ better half would distract opposing batters more.
Prediction: Figure them for 93-94 wins which should be enough for a wild card.
3.Blue Jays- The front three of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and Gustavo Chacin is very good. B.J. Ryan is a rock out of the pen. The Big Hurt should supply some extra BP for Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus. Alex Rios is an emerging star and Aaron Hill continues to improve at second. This team should be in it.
Prediction: 90 wins isn’t out of question but they’ll fall just short.
4.Orioles- Erik Bedard and a resurgent Daniel “Wild Thing Rick Vaughn” Cabrera give Baltimore a potent 1-2 to anchor the staff. The problem could be 3-5 who are occupied by Adam Loewen, ex-Yank Jaret Wright and washed up ex-Met Steve Trachsel. They better hope Wright regains the form he showed in Atlanta reunited with Leo Mazzone. Believe it or not, they could miss Kris Benson. Offensively, Miguel Tejada leads the way. He’s got plenty of support in Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts, Corey Patterson, Aubrey Huff and Ramon Hernandez. Nick Markakis really came in the second half last year. The Birds are hoping key pickups Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford and Danys Baez can get the ball to closer Chris Ray.
Prediction: 85 wins would be nice but figure them for .500 in a tough division.
5.Devil Rays- Is there really anywhere else to put this joke of a franchise? After ace Scott Kazmir, 2-5 consists of Jae Seo, James Shields, Casey Fossum and Edwin Jackson. Say what? This is what happens when a cheap management doesn’t want to spend what it takes to compete. They do boast some decent offensive prospects in Delmon Young and B.J. Upton. And Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli are All Star calibre outfielders. But how can they be taken seriously with that staff and Seth freaking McClung closing games? They should make the annual D-Ray theme song The Beatles’ “Help.”
Prediction: To quote Clubber Lang from Rocky III, “Pain.”
AL Central- Last year, Detroit got out of the gate quickly but faded down the stretch to drop the division on the final day of the season to Minnesota. Cleveland disappointed as did the White Sox. This year promises to be another dogfight.
1.Tigers- This is just gut feeling because this division could go to any other competitor aside from Omaha. Detroit suffered a big blow when staff anchor Kenny “Miracle Dirt” Rogers needed surgery to remove a blood clot. He’ll be out the entire first half. But if Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander are legit, they’ll be fine. They also get Mike Maroth back. Their pen is arguably the best in baseball with Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya setting up Todd Jones. Gary Sheffield should stablize a lineup which also includes Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez along with Carlos Guillen (just inked extension) and the overlooked Craig Monroe. What’s more? Expect bigger things from Curtis Granderson making this offense as lethal as their pitching. Yikes.
Prediction: 98-99 wins isn’t a stretch.
2.White Sox- After a disappointing finish to ‘06, GM Ken Singleton retooled by unloading Freddy Garcia to Philly for pitching prospect Gavin Floyd and another prospect. He also gave up on Brandon McCarthy- dealing him to Texas for two prospects including Nick Masset who should crack a rotation that still has former 2005 Cy Young winner Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras and Javier Vazquez. With fireballer Bobby Jenks closing games, the only question could be middle relief led by Mike MacDougal. The lineup will have plenty of power supplied by Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye and Joe Crede. Ex-Angel Darin Erstad should be a good addition and Tadahito Iguchi is a valuable part.
Prediction: As long as Ozzie Guillen doesn’t lose the clubhouse, they should be in contention all year long. We’ll give them 92-93 wins which means they’ll probably get edged out for the WC by Boston.
3.Twins- With rating AL MVP Justin Morneau and All Star centerfielder Torii Hunter along with defending batting champ Joe Mauer, the offense should be fine. Especially if Jason Kubel comes back healthy. Remarkably, it’s the pitching which is what has us skeptical. After two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, it gets really questionable. With Francisco Liriano lost for the season and Brad Radke now retired, Carlos Silva and Ramon Ortiz don’t strike fear in anyone. They better hope Boof Bonser and Matt Garza deliver or their vaunted pen which features Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon and underappreciated closer Joe Nathan is going to be heavily relied on.
Prediction: We’ll say 87-88 wins because Ron Gardenhire is a good regular season skipper.
4.Indians- The lineup which features MVP candidates Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore should get enough support from Victor Martinez, ex-Sock Nixon, Casey Blake and newcomer Josh Barfield. David Dellucci is an overachiever. The rotation anchored by C.C. Sabathia has the potential to be great with Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers all solid. So what could go wrong for the trendy pick? Their pen kind of sucks. If you’re entrusting faith in vets Roberto Hernandez and Joe Borowski to finish off the last two frames, it’s a recipe for disaster.
Prediction: They’ll score a lot of runs and be fun to watch but they’re in a very tough division. Don’t expect more than .500.
5.Royals- Was there really any doubt where they’d wind up? Yeah, Mark Teahen, top prospect third baseman Alex Gordon and ex-Rockie Ryan Shealy make them more interesting for the future. And it’s great to see Zach Greinke back in the rotation after a rough 2006. But any organization who hands out a five-year $55 million deal to the mediocre Gil Meche is out of its league. They also handed injury prone Octavio Dotel in excess of $5 million to close games. How long before he’s on the DL? We give it two months.
Prediction: About as much chance as Glass Joe had against Little Mac in Tyson’s Punchout.
AL West-Last year, the A’s took a big step by actually getting out of the first round and did it by sweeping the Twins. So did skipper Ken Macha get rewarded? No. Instead the peculiar Billy Beane axed him and promoted assistant Bob Geren. Yes. That Bob Geren! So, will it work? Remains to be seen. But the competition should once again come from the Angels.
1.Angels- After careful consideration, we decided on the Angels because they have deeper pockets which could factor in around the trade deadline. With a solid rotation that features John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana, they should be extremely tough. Factor in the usual strong relief corps with the addition of Justin Speier to recently re-signed Scot Shields plus closer K-Rod and it’s lights out. Last year, offense was their undoing. So they overpaid for Gary “HGH” Matthews Jr. who had one career season. Think they might want a do-over? He still should add some speed and D to the outfield. Chone Figgins, Vlad Guerrero and Garret Anderson are a terrific trio. Orlando Cabrera is solid defensively. If young guns Howie Kendrick, Casey Kotchman and Mike Napoli hit, suddenly a weakness will be a strength.
Prediction: 95 wins and just enough to edge the A’s for the division sounding off alarms in the Bronx.
2.Athletics- They lost Barry Zito to the Giants and a crazy price ($126 million- damn that Scott Bora$). But they still boast Dan Haren, Joe Blanton and Rich Harden. The key will be Harden who hasn’t stayed healthy the past two seasons (31 total appearances). Esteban Loiaza and Joe Kennedy are serviceable. They don’t have to go long due to a pen which includes dynamic 8-9 duo Justin Duchscherer and Huston Street. The offense could take a hit with the loss of Frank Thomas but Beane did sign Mike Piazza to replace him as the DH. It should be a good fit. Nick Swisher, Eric Chavez and Dan Johnson should supply power. Shannon Stewart is a decent addition. Most important though will be the health of Milton Bradley and Bobby Crosby.
Prediction: You just know Harden, Bradley and Crosby are going to miss time. We’ll give them 92 wins which just won’t be enough for October.
3.Rangers- They fired Buck Showalter. So that’s a plus. The last two teams to do that (’96 Yanks and ‘01 D-Backs) went on to win it all the following season. But enough about that. Does this team have enough pitching? Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla are decent but not on the level of most top two starters. McCarthy and Robinson Tejeda are green. If they don’t pitch effectively, it’s lights out. The offense should be potent again with a very productive infield which features Mark Teixeira, Hank Blalock, Michael Young and rising star second baseman Ian Kinsler. The outfield has questions beginning with aging leadoff man Kenny Lofton and 2006 failure Brad Wilkerson. Frank Catalanotto was a solid addition at DH. Will they get anything out of Sammy Sosa? He had a great Spring but it remains to be seen. With ex-Dodger closer Eric Gagne starting the year on the DL, the steady Akinori Otsuka will close out games.
Prediction: Many like them as a sleeper but there are too many question marks with the staff. Pencil in 81-82 wins.
4.Mariners- The offense should be really good with the additions of the Jose’s- Guillen and Vidro to a lineup which features pending FA Ichiro, Richie Sexson, Raul Ibanez, Adrian Beltre and riser Jose Lopez. Ben Broussard could also provide some pop. Any rotation which hinges on a young gun (in this case Felix Hernandez) will probably struggle. Jarrod Washburn’s a decent No.2 but after that Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez are mediocre. Unless they exceed expectations, the Mariners’ strong bullpen will be forced to enter games earlier which might limit the effectiveness of Julio Mateo and finisher J.J. Putz. Why did they deal away Rafael Soriano again for Ramirez?
Prediction: Can’t see anything better than .500 for this bunch.
Coming Later- Part II: The Senior Circuit
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